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Bitcoin Halvings and Emerging Demand Drivers

Geo Nicolaidis explores upcoming halvings, highlighting miner revenue, AI competition, and fee uncertainty, while noting BitVM as a potential future demand driver.

geonicolaidis.substack.com
🔗 Issue 13: The Next Two Halvings

Even at $150,000 per bitcoin with $5 million in daily transaction fees, the network would be less secure per dollar of value stored than it is today at $67,800. The block subsidy halving outpaces price appreciation and fee growth combined in every scenario I can model. This issue lays out three scenarios for the 2028 and 2032 halvings, and stakes five specific, date-bound predictions on the result. If I’m wrong, I’ll say so in 2028.